Baftas 2011 Predictions

So in about three hours the awards season will step up a notch as we reach the Baftas, Britain's flagship film awards ceremony and the final send-off for the hopeful movies before the ones that everyone wants, the Oscars. Who wins tonight will give us the biggest clue as to who'll be taking home the golden statues in a fortnight's time. The Baftas are usually, but not always, synchronous with the Academy Awards; like last year when Kathryn Bigelow's The Hurt Locker beat out her ex-husband James Cameron's Avatar for Best Picture in London, and subsequently went on to repeat the feat in Los Angeles two weeks later.

So here are our picks for who'll be receiving plaudits tonight in the shape of a golden mask, and who we think deserve the awards.

Leading Actor
Javier Bardem - Biutiful, Jeff Bridges - True Grit, Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network, Colin Firth - The King's Speech, James Franco - 127 Hours

NotYetRated Prediction: Colin Firth - The King's Speech
NotYetRated Choice: James Franco - 127 Hours

Possibly the easiest category to predict, this will be Colin Firth's second consecutive Leading Actor Bafta, following his award last year for A Single Man. Firth's performance as King George VI is certainly deserved of this award, but for our money, the performance of the year was James Franco's outstanding solo effort in 127 Hours as Aron Ralston.

Leading Actress

Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right, Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right, Natalie Portman - Black Swan, Noomie Rapace - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit

NotYetRated Prediction: Natalie Portman - Black Swan

NotYetRated Choice: Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Perhaps even easier to predict than Leading Actor, Natalie Portman is a virtual lock for Leading Actress following her enthralling turn in Black Swan. And we have to agree. Hailee Steinfeld is a revelation in True Grit, but her youth (which incidentally is why she's nominated as Supporting Actress at the Oscars) will work against her. Even so, Portman is outstanding and there can be no quarrels with her inevitable crowning tonight.

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale - The Fighter, Andrew Garfield - The Social Network, Pete Postlethwaite - The Town, Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right, Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech

NotYetRated Prediction: Christian Bale - The Fighter

NotYetRated Choice: Christian Bale - The Fighter

All the buzz going in surrounds Christian Bale's physical transformation and show-stealing performance in The Fighter, so he is most likely to pick up his first Bafta. We would also have to agree with this decoration, but it's by no means a certainty. For us, Geoffrey Rush gave a career-defining performance in The King's Speech, and it wouldn't at all be surprising for the British film to clean up tonight, including Rush here.

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams - The Fighter, Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech, Barbara Hershey - Black Swan, Lesley Manville - Another Year, Miranda Richardson - Made in Dagenham

NotYetRated Prediction: Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech

NotYetRated Choice: Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech

The Oscar front-runner Melissa Leo isn't even nominated here, and her co-star Amy Adams is unlikely to pull out a win here. Who benefits most from Leo's absence is Helena Bonham Carter, who looks as if she may get her first Bafta after her third nomination, since portraying royalty usually proves magnetic to awards. If the expected The King's Speech rout doesn't materialise, Lesley Manville could be in with a shout for her excellent performance in Mike Leigh's Another Year.

Adapted Screenplay

Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy - 127 Hours, Rasmus Heisterberg, Nikolaj Arcel - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network, Michael Arndt - Toy Story 3, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen - True Grit

NotYetRated Prediction: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network

NotYetRated Choice: Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network

Despite some excellent scripts in the form of Toy Story 3 (in this category on account of being a sequel), 127 Hours and True Grit, it's hard to see anything other than The Social Network winning here. Taking a story which, while interesting, doesn't exude excitement and turning it into such a compelling film is no small feat. The trademark snappy dialogue of Aaron Sorkin is a joy to watch, and a major reason why he's considered by many to be the best screenwriter working today.

Original Screenplay

Mark Heyman, Andrés Heinz, John McLaughlin - Black Swan, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson - The Fighter, Christopher Nolan - Inception, Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg - The Kids Are All Right, David Seidler - The King's Speech

NotYetRated Prediction: David Seidler - The King's Speech

NotYetRated Choice: Christopher Nolan - Inception

We expect The King's Speech to take another award here tonight for its well-considered script which manages to be simultaneously funny, touching and inspirational without ever being cheesy or overly sentimental. But if we were dishing out the awards it would have to go to Christopher Nolan as no film has managed to balance intelligence and originality with mass-appeal and blockbuster effects as effectively as Inception. Its script, taking ten years to perfect, takes an extremely complex narrative and makes it both entertaining and (relatively) understandable.

Director

Danny Boyle - 127 Hours, Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan, Christopher Nolan - Inception, Tom Hooper - The King's Speech, David Fincher - The Social Network

NotYetRated Prediction: Tom Hooper - The King's Speech

NotYetRated Choice: Anyone but Tom Hooper - The King's Speech

Again we expect The King's Speech to take this award, with Tom Hooper picking up his first Bafta win. Now don't get us wrong here, The King's Speech is an excellently directed film with some beautifully constructed shots and a cast full of brilliant performances. However, and this speaks to the sheer quality of film in 2010, the other nominees simply deserve more credit for their direction. 127 Hours wouldn't be interesting to watch without Danny Boyle at the helm, Black Swan is a beautiful film masterfully crafted by Darren Aronofsky, Inception is an epic car-crash of ideas and complex narrative wrestled into an endlessly enjoyable film by Christopher Nolan, and The Social Network is subtly directed by David Fincher to bring out some excellent performances from a young cast. A compelling argument for any of these nominees can be made, and next to them, The King's Speech seems workman-like but nothing outstanding.

Best Film

Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver, Scott Franklin - Black Swan, Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan - Inception, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin - The King's Speech, Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca, Céan Chaffin - The Social Network, Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen - True Grit

NotYetRated Prediction: Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin - The King's Speech

NotYetRated Choice: Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan - Inception

All through the awards season it has been locked in a battle with The Social Network, but its looking increasingly likely that at the two ceremonies that really count, The King's Speech is going to win out. All of its elements, from its period setting and focus on royalty to its "overcoming adversity" story and unlikely friendship between Firth and Rush, scream of awards darling, and further than this, it's genuinely an outstanding and not to mention, British, film. All the other nominees in this category would be worthy of applaud here, but for us, Nolan's Inception is the year's truly groundbreaking film.